Predicting the Real Estate Market in 2023
Hey it’s your favorite local realtor, Eren Millam with Premiere Property Group. I get asked about the market on a near daily basis and I love being able to provide data and statistics with context so you can make the best decision for you and yours. However, those numbers are always about the present, not the future, so it can be difficult to plan your move in advance. So, today, we will be going over my 2023 Real Estate Predictions for the Lewis County market.
2023 Real Estate Prediction: Inventory
Will inventory go up or down this year? The blood is in the water, so to speak. Sellers recognize the peak of the market has been reached they will sell at numbers we haven’t seen since the last market crash. That said, this could be a double-edged sword based on the amount of buyer demand we see. That factor is directly related to what happens with interest rates.
What are interest rates going to do this year? The fed has stated they are raising rates to curtail inflation, but that doesn’t seem to have worked. It has curtailed buyer demand and forced layoffs in the real estate sectors and others. Whether this is acknowledged or not, that is hard to tell, but most expects project a peak of around 8% before finally settling somewhere between 4-5%. The timeline for this is unknown, which could affect the total amount of closed sales.
Will we have more closed sales this year? When interest rates started jumping up in February 2022, the market was unaffected until June. In fact, the market continued to jump up price wise. Then in July and following, the market saw steep drops throughout the rest of the year except for October which also saw a huge increase. This is indicative of an unstable market, rather than a stable decline, meaning that buyers are waiting on the sidelines rather than being priced out of the market. Depending on how buyers respond to interest rates will determine how prices fluctuate.
Will prices continue to fall next year? In the latter half of 2022 many consumers (and experts) suggested we were going to see the next great real estate crash. I think it was more of a hope than an analysis of the data! That’s not exactly what we saw, though. Because of the gigantic gains in the 1st half of the year, the second half losses amounted to a wash from the beginning of the year. We ended up just about where we started!
2023 Real Estate Predictions for Lewis County
What will happen the market overall this year? The last few paragraphs were setting up the context for my prediction. To be clear, there are too many variables to be accurate, but if we just look at the data, there are a few trends worth following. I expect inventory to increase a ton this year, but also remember that we still have a multi-year backlog compared to average buyer demand. If the interest rates remain steady or drop, which I do expect, the buyers on the sidelines will jump in as there will be too many good options to pass up. So, closed sales will increase and prices will go up. I do expect the large swings to be curtailed as we return to a typical appreciation of around 4%. There you have it, my 2023 Real Estate Predictions.
I have also heard it stated that we are in a buyer’s market. This is not quite true. It is still a seller’s market albeit, just barely. Buyers right now can get massive deals because seller’s don’t know the stats of what is truly happening. If you’re not working with an agent who knows the stats, how can you get the best deals? How can you ensure your interests and equity are protected?
If you’re thinking of buying or selling your home in the west Lewis County area, contact me today! I’d love to hear from you! Eren Millam – Managing Broker Premiere Property Group, LLC WA License No. 26933
Chehalis, WA 98532 | Centralia, WA 98531 | Adna, WA | Napavine, WA | Onalaska, WA 98570 | Rochester, WA 98579 | Vader, WA 98593 | Winlock, WA 98596 | Boistfort, WA
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